As Turkish political parties have announced their candidates for the Istanbul mayoral race scheduled for March 31st, and each has divulged its electoral platform and set out on intensive tours of the city’s neighborhoods and commercial areas to explain their vision for addressing residents’ problems and solutions, a critical question arises regarding the Kurdish vote in Istanbul: Whose side will the Kurdish vote favor this time?
The Magic Wand
The Kurdish vote has always acted as a compass directing the course of elections and acts as a magic wand in determining the outcomes in favor of their preferred candidate. This decisive factor can secure victory for its bearer, overpowering any opposition, regardless of their strength or political representation.
This undeniable truth was evident in the local elections of 2019, which is a substantial indication of this assertion. At that time, the Kurds aligned with Ekrem İmamoğlu, the “Nation Alliance” candidate, a coalition of the main opposition parties, against Binali Yıldırım, the “People Alliance” candidate. İmamoğlu prevailed over his rival, garnering 54.2% of the votes compared to 45% for his “Government Alliance” opponent.
This significant margin could not have been achieved without the Kurds’ support, who sought to punish the “Justice and Development Party” for backtracking on its initiative to solve the Kurdish issue politically and resuming a security-oriented approach.
Recalibration of Accounts
The “Justice and Development Party” quickly grasped the message from this electoral lesson and began recalibrating their strategies. They initiated new lines of communication with influential Kurdish figures in politics and culture, supporting moderate views aligned with the state’s vision for solving the Kurdish issue.
This initiative grants Kurds greater cultural freedom and an effective societal presence without compromising the principles sustaining the Turkish state, preserving national unity and preventing territorial fragmentation.
In previous parliamentary and presidential elections, they entered an alliance with the “Huda-Par” party representing conservative Kurds, which proved to be beneficial for both parties. The “Huda-Par” acquired seats traditionally dominated by the “Peoples’ Democratic Party” and joined the parliament for the first time, while the “People Alliance” garnered votes from the Islamic and conservative Kurds, which helped retain their parliamentary majority.
This ongoing alliance is poised to have a significant impact on the outcome of the local elections, considering the persistent rift between the left-wing Kurdish parties, such as the “Democracy and Equality Party,” and the secular and nationalist factions, such as the “Republican People’s Party” and “Iyi Party,” especially regarding their stance towards the PKK, designated as a terrorist organization by the state.
Playing All Sides
The “Republican People’s Party” is currently in a challenging position with the Kurds following criticism aimed at the PKK and its leader, Abdullah Öcalan, by its head Özgür Özel. Despite professing empathy towards the Kurdish plight and calling for the release of detained Kurdish politicians, attempts to appease nationalist Turks have sparked an unexpected backlash from Kurdish leaders, possibly leading to the withdrawal of support for the party’s candidate.
This reaction indicates a potential loss of Kurdish votes for the “Republican People’s Party,” even if the “Democracy and Equality Party” decides to overlook this dispute and maintain their electoral alliance, which could affect Ekrem İmamoğlu’s votes, to the benefit of the “People Alliance” candidate, Murad Kurum.
Antagonism with the Kurds
Meanwhile, the “Iyi Party” has retained its voter base of predominantly nationalists by refusing to ally with any Kurdish-representative party and endorsing the government’s approach. This stance has intensified the enmity between Kurdish nationalists, represented by the “Democracy and Equality Party,” and the Turkish nationalists backing the “Iyi Party,” potentially leading to the loss of Kurdish votes for the “Iyi Party.”
However, it has bolstered the prospects of the “Justice and Development Party” and “People Alliance” among Turkish nationalists and leftists, as well as conservative Kurds. Notably, the “Nationalist Movement Party,” despite its staunch Turkish nationalism, did not oppose the inclusion of the Kurdish “Huda-Par” into the “People Alliance.”
Ignoring Kurdish Interests
The Turkish opposition parties’ stances toward the Kurds – aiming to use them as leverage for electoral gains – may benefit the parties more than the Kurds themselves. The opposition’s views on resolving the Kurdish issue, whether aligned or opposed to the Kurds’ perspectives and neglecting the Kurds’ status as a major ethnic component of Turkish society alongside Turks, have created a deep rift between Kurdish and Turkish parties, particularly the nationalist and leftist factions.
This situation suggests a political scene wary from what was observed in 2019, following the previous local elections, and deviates from expectations for the upcoming period, whether analyzed by specialized research centers or through public opinion polls.
