Moscow – Approaching its second year, the Russian-Ukrainian war shows no signs of a political resolution that could end a conflict whose political and economic repercussions have rippled across the globe.
The situation has not plateaued; significant changes to military tactics, weaponry, and equipment dynamics have been seen at the onset of the year, unlike anything witnessed since the conflict began.
The fierce battles in Ukraine did not relent throughout most of 2023, with both sides engaging in persistent offensives and defenses. Casualties have numbered in the tens of thousands, yet neither side has managed to deliver a strategic blow to effectively annihilate the other.
Alternation Without Resolution
As 2024 began, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced substantial changes in combat tactics and weaponry, hinting at the Russian military's determination to counteract the weapons supplied by allies to Ukraine and reduce their effectiveness, while reminding that Moscow had repeatedly warned the West against arming Kyiv and threatened such supplies as legitimate targets for Russian forces.
Moreover, Moscow is of the view that those who planned last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive were confident of a Ukrainian military victory; the Ukrainian elite units were expected to deliver "painful and decisive" strikes against the Russian forces.
Russian military observers have stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive did not go as planned and fizzled out before it could gain momentum, despite Ukrainian forces employing their "last" reserves of ammunition.
Military expert Viktor Litovkin described the new tactics as centered around launching widespread missile strikes that result in the excessive consumption of enemy anti-aircraft missiles and artillery shells, consequently causing a significant depletion of these types of munitions.
Litovkin further explained to Al Jazeera Net that the Russian forces are now utilizing rockets equipped with thermal balloons, similar to those used by aircraft and helicopters, an unprecedented tactic. These thermal traps, when deployed extensively, can disrupt systems like the "Stinger" missiles and lead to their dispersion. He mentioned that if Russia continued such extensive missile attacks, the Ukrainian military's ammunition supply could be exhausted.
"Horseshoe" Tactic
Aside from the pressure applied by the Ukrainian forces, Russian troops could tactically retreat and form a "horseshoe" before encircling Ukrainian troops in a "cauldron" created by artillery and air-fire.
Litovkin highlighted that Russian tactics are individual and localized, tailored to each situation, considering the type of air defense possessed by the Ukrainians in a specific region of the front, as well as the weather conditions.
The tactic of using missiles with thermal traps was first used in late 2023 when a Lvivian factory for tank production in Ukraine was hit. Russian military experts described the results as revealing a significant level of "confusion" in the Ukrainian air defense systems' interception of the rockets.
Observers in Russia believe the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive leads to several "grim" conclusions for Kyiv. They think one of Ukraine's main problems is its asymmetrical position, as it is not armed sufficiently to breach Russian defenses. Although Western allies provide assistance, they do not share the more sophisticated modern fighters.
Relentless Pressure
Military affairs analyst Yuri Knutov states that the new Russian tactics aim to relentlessly pressure the "enemy" with powerful, precise strikes on energy systems and military facilities in Ukraine, preventing Kyiv from restoring the energy potential of its arms producers and repairing military equipment, and complicating the transfer of military supplies and reserves to its armed forces.
Knutov adds that Ukraine also employs tactics of the British Special Forces in some regions, sending small groups of 3-5 individuals to approach Russian positions, inflict damage, and quickly withdraw.
He notes that these Ukrainian operations, typically a main attack force accompanied by two diversions, happen up to ten times a day. Their goal is to exhaust Russian soldiers and try to breach Russian defenses when they are fatigued.
According to Knutov, Russian forces have recognized this tactic and are preemptively targeting these groups, including with artillery support. This makes it extraordinarily difficult for the opponent to concentrate resources for either defense, offense, or counteroffensive.
Responding to the intensified use of drones by Ukrainian forces, the expert believes these attacks correlate to the "desperate situation" of the Ukrainian military on the front lines, realizing they have strategically lost the war and are striving to demoralize Russian society with informational and psychological operations.
Wrapping up, the military expert asserts that if extensive American military aid is not resumed and the Ukrainian armed forces face a severe shortage of shells, the Ukrainian command might revert to defensive tactics within cities, as witnessed at the war's commencement.
