The global food production triangle is composed of “crops,” “livestock,” and “humans” managing this system. While discussions about studying the impact of climate change on food often focus on the first two aspects, less attention is paid to the third aspect. This is the issue addressed by an international study led by Loughborough University in collaboration with Australian and American universities.
The study, published in “Global Change Biology,” highlights that climate change will lead to a decrease in farmers’ physical capacity. It explains that by the end of the century, extreme weather events could lead to a potential 40% decrease in labor productivity in key food-producing areas such as Pakistan and India. This figure could rise to 70% in other important crop-growing regions in South and Southeast Asia, West and Central Africa, and South America.
Professor Gerald Nelson, a researcher involved in the study, stated in a press release issued by Loughborough University, “Assessments consistently conclude that climate change will reduce crop and livestock productivity, exacerbating food security challenges. However, our study indicates that the effects extend beyond crops and livestock. Agricultural workers who plant, cultivate, and harvest much of the food we need will also suffer from exposure to heat, reducing their ability to work in the fields.”
The study utilized mathematical models to predict work capacity developed by Loughborough University, known as “Individual Work Capacity for a Heat Stress-free Environment.” The models drew on data from over 700 heat stress experiments, monitoring individuals working in a range of temperatures, humidity levels, and varied climate conditions, including sunlight and wind.
The study revealed that agricultural workers do feel the heat, with estimates indicating that half of the world’s farmers worked at 86% of their capacity in climate conditions similar to those indicated from 1991 to 2010. These findings underscore the potential long-term impact of climate change on agricultural productivity.
Additionally, the study explored potential modifications to mitigate the impact of climate change on agricultural workers. It revealed that shifting work to nighttime or shaded areas to reduce direct sun exposure could improve workers’ productivity by 5-10%. Another option studied was increasing the global use of machinery and mechanical equipment, particularly in the Sahel region of Africa, where agricultural practices largely involve physical labor.
Moreover, from an economic standpoint, the study aims to comprehend the full impact of climate change on workers’ productivity to guide efforts to maintain worker safety while minimizing productivity losses. It is hoped that this research will steer investments to support agricultural workers and food security, considering that climate change increasingly makes outdoor work environments inhospitable.
