Despite a number of successful and failed coups in the West African region since 2020, the coups in Niger and Gabon have made a significant impact, with effects that have extended beyond the local area into regional implications, and possibly shaking the entire continent, as well as the geopolitical influences linked to international positioning. What distinguishes these two coups on different levels?
Understanding Internal Contexts
Just 36 days after the coup in Niger, the Gabon coup took place in Central Africa, yet within the geography of West Africa. Numerous analyses in Niger described the event as a response to end a major historical era marked by the end of French colonialism, to such a degree that they were deemed more significant than the Arab Spring revolutions.
Analysts describe the Gabon coup as an attempt to detach from a governing system connected to one family for over half a century. Both coups share the sweeping popular support they found, and altogether, experts interpret these events as an expression of the loss of hope in democratic change in Africa.
Niger's Coup and the ECOWAS Crisis
Unlike the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) usual handling of regional crises, the coup in Niger seemed to sow the seeds of the end of the system due to the profound crisis it caused. Analysts argue that ECOWAS did not start dealing with the crisis incrementally, which was necessitated by reality and urgency, possibly due to panic and turmoil in the region fearing a spread of coups.
The crisis caused a deep rift within the group, dividing it into two camps: one supporting Niger and ready to wage war for it, and the other insisting on military intervention to restore the detained President Mohamed Bazoum.
Similarities and Differences
A detailed examination of the Niger and Gabon coups reveals a number of similarities and differences:
- Both coups occurred in former French colonies.
- Leaders of the presidential guard were behind the coups in both countries.
- The Niger coup was against Western interests, while the Gabon coup ensured the continuation of Western interests, according to analysts.
- ECOWAS imposed harsh sanctions on Niger, whereas the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) did not impose any on Gabon.
- While Niger's coup caused a profound shake in the region, Gabon's coup did not have the same impact on ECCAS countries.
- The coup in Niger occurred against the first president who peacefully took power from a former leader, whereas Gabon's coup was against the family "Bongo" who had ruled for over half a century.
- Western countries insisted on the return of Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum to power, while they did not do so with Gabon.
- The policies of the United States and the European Union differed in dealing with Niger; while the EU was stringent in dealing with the coup, the US did not classify what happened as a coup until many months later.
The Echo of the Coup
The coups in Niger and Gabon caused a violent shake in the region and on a regional level, creating a state of uncertainty and fear of rapid contagion, prompting some leaders to worry, and opening the possibilities for the fireball to roll towards the remaining countries. To remedy the situation, a number of leaders quickly took measures to protect their systems.
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Cameroon: One day after the military takeover in Gabon, President Paul Biya, who has ruled Cameroon since 1982, implemented urgent changes in the Ministry of Defense by dismissing several senior generals and appointing other officers in an attempt to prevent any gaps that might cause a coup against him.
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Rwanda: On the same day as the Gabon coup, President Paul Kagame took a number of measures, dismissing 950 generals and senior officers, as well as 930 non-commissioned officers and soldiers, including the Army Chief of Staff General James Kabarebe. These measures sparked rumors about their underlying reasons, with some discussing a failed coup attempt and others linking the measures to disagreements between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
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Sierra Leone: A week after the Niger coup, a group of army officers was arrested on charges of planning to overthrow the government using protests that were being organized at the time. The Sierra Leonean authorities later confirmed that there indeed were plans for a coup d'état.
- Liberia: The fears of a coup in Sierra Leone and the spread of the news put Liberia on alert, fearing a potential coup amidst preparations for the presidential elections.
Geopolitical Concerns
The Niger coup caused geopolitical concerns internationally after disrupting the agendas in the Sahel region and complicating the matters. The continuity of the G5 Sahel countries became doubtful after the coup, as well as the cohesion of ECOWAS due to alignments among its members and weak management of the coup files and how to deal with them.
Internationally, the Niger coup struck a blow to all agreements with the European Union, France, and the United States by Niger canceling France's privileges in uranium, dissolving military agreements with the European Union, and repealing the law on combating human trafficking across the Sahara.
For the United States, initially, it did not stop its aid and dealt pragmatically without classifying the situation in Niger as a coup. The military council did not ask for the US bases to be removed, as it did with France. The concern here stems from the fear of Russia's expansion, which is waiting for the right moment in both Mali and Burkina Faso, causing great concern for the West, in addition to fears of the proliferation of armed groups that are multiplying terrifyingly in the West African region.
An End of an Era and the Beginning of Another
Writer Richard Poplak in "Global and Mail" described what is happening in Africa as "the end of a major era and the beginning of a new phase, especially concerning France and its historical presence in Africa". Others have described the events in both countries as highlighting the issues of national sovereignty and the right to self-determination in Africa.
Between the desire for true independence, responding to the imperatives of collective security, and the intertwining interests of international actors, the aspirations of African peoples for stability, development, and prosperity remain at stake, amid what might be further decline or potentially the labor pains of a new birth.
