The New York Times recently published an article by a security affairs researcher discussing the risks and uncertainties surrounding American and British military strikes in Yemen, along with their underlying objectives.
Bilal Y. Saab, the director of the Defense and Security Program at the Middle East Institute, holds that the United States, by targeting Ansar Allah (Houthi) sites in Yemen and their Iranian backers, has sent a “stern” message indicating a shift from a purely defensive stance in the Red Sea to a determined effort to halt this group’s attacks on commercial shipping in territorial waters.
The effectiveness of this strategy remains uncertain, given the Houthi’s obstinacy, who stand to benefit from any conflict with the United States. Such an engagement would bolster their credibility against the American enemy, distracting from their “atrocious” governance of the northwest Yemen areas and the capital Sanaa.
The author posits that the United States is compelled to act because of the escalating threat the Houthis pose to the freedom of trade and navigation in the Red Sea, an essential global maritime corridor and of strategic importance to Washington.
President Joe Biden has shown readiness to “take further actions to protect our people and ensure the free flow of international trade as necessary.”
The writer believes that if Biden maintains this “strict” new approach, empowers U.S. forces in the region with the necessary authorization and resources, and ties further use of force to diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the disastrous war between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), the chances of curbing the Houthis could improve.
Following Israel’s declaration of war and the Al-Aqsa Surge operation on October 7, 2023, the Houthis pledged to launch attacks aimed at stopping Israeli ships or others carrying goods to “the occupied Palestinian ports” in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza.
Since October 17, Houthis have attacked or harassed at least 27 ships in international shipping lanes.
On January 11, the United States and some allies responded by striking over 60 targets in Yemen, including Houthi radar systems, air defense infrastructures, and storage and launch sites. The United States carried out another round of strikes against the Houthis on Friday.
The article highlights the evident risks and uncertainties associated with American and British attacks in Yemen.
The Houthis, removed from the U.S. foreign terrorist organizations list in February 2021 to facilitate humanitarian aid to areas under their control, vowed retaliation. This declaration might prompt an escalation Washington is keen to avoid, as indicated by Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent visits to the region.
According to the article, without the “generous” support of Iran, providing funds, training, and intelligence, the Houthis would lose their capability to significantly disrupt regional navigation. However, stopping Iranian support would not prevent them from using the weapons they already possess, a serious concern, though theoretically, they could also sustain themselves through control over state revenues and resources.
Given these risks, the United States has no alternative but to respond to Houthi aggression, which has led to a growing international consensus to confront their increasing obstinance and recklessness.
