The Pakistan Elections Without Imran Khan
Days separate us from the hotly contested elections in Pakistan, scheduled for February 8th. These elections will produce a federal parliament and four local parliaments that govern the country’s four provinces, representing more than a quarter billion people.
However, these elections are taking place in extremely challenging domestic, regional, and international conditions. This is particularly evident amidst the rift that occurred between the military, which has ruled the country for more than half of its existence, following the strained relationship with Imran Khan, the leader of the Justice Party. Khan was removed from power, then convicted and imprisoned. This has been a predominant tradition in Pakistan’s history, where the dismissal of any elected Prime Minister instigates tension in the relationship, often culminating in political exile, typically following imprisonment, with the exception of Imran Khan, who was deprived of political participation with a prison sentence.
Imran Khan: The Absentee Presence
The sentencing of the Justice Party leader, Imran Khan, to ten years in prison alongside his former Foreign Minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, for leaking state security documents, has provoked the resentment of the party’s supporters. It has also exacerbated the division between the party that represents the youth and the deep state represented by the military. This marks the first time in Pakistan’s history that a Prime Minister has been accused of leaking state security documents.
Khan and his former Foreign Minister leaked a cable from the Pakistani ambassador in Washington, indicating a threat to Khan’s government. This led to his dismissal and removal from power. Subsequently, Khan and his party began to propagate that the military ousted him from power upon American orders. Given the prevalence of conspiracy theories, particularly regarding American interventions in Pakistan, which the Pakistani people have been familiar with throughout their short history, Khan’s statements gained popularity, especially among the youth.
The forthcoming electoral battle seems to be between the Pakistan People’s Party led by Bilawal Bhutto, a former Pakistani Foreign Minister, and son of Benazir Bhutto, and the Islamic League led by Nawaz Sharif, who returned from London after years of being deprived of political participation by a judicial decision. Perhaps if the document was not leaked, the acceptance of U.S. involvement in his ousting would not have reached the level it did. These are familiar incidents in Pakistani elections, but the fear and anxiety still prevail among the Pakistani public regarding the potential for their escalation and deterioration.
The Electoral Battle Between Sharif and Bhutto
On the 8th of next month, 19 candidates will compete for each federal or local parliamentary seat. This represents the highest competition ratio in Pakistani electoral history. As per the recent opinion polls, Khan’s support has declined from 60% to 57%. On the other hand, Sharif’s support has increased from 36% to 52%, and the Pakistan People’s Party’s support has decreased from 36% to 35%.
Sharif, the largest province in Pakistan, has seen an increase in his popularity, which may reassure the economic and business circles globally. The International Monetary Fund estimates the inflation in Pakistan for 2023 to be 29.2% compared to 12.1% the previous year, while the GDP is expected to drop from 6.1% to 0.5% for 2023.
The concerns over pre-election violence are escalating, particularly following the recent violent incidents involving most participating parties. The potential wave of violence is a threat to the electoral process, prompting the transitional government overseeing the elections and the security forces to be vigilant.
The future government of Pakistan stands at the forefront of a series of internal and external challenges, particularly in relation to the political system and the economy. An incident like this only reinforces the loss of trust among the Pakistani public in the political and electoral system, prompting concerns about its dangerous and deep-seated repercussions on Pakistan’s security and stability.
In conclusion, the challenges faced by the future Pakistani government are extensive and complex, encompassing the domestic system and the way to engage with Khan’s disgruntled supporters, the immense economic challenges following the significant decline in the Pakistani rupee, and the delicate international stance amidst the intensified competition between global and regional powers. Nonetheless, regardless of who wins the elections on February 8th, the Pakistani military retains significant control over the country’s foreign policy, and any confrontation between the military and the Prime Minister holds significant implications.
