The Associated Press quoted Egyptian officials and a Western diplomat as saying on Sunday that Egypt might suspend its peace treaty with Israel if the latter invades the city of Rafah in southern Gaza on the Egyptian border.
According to reports, Egyptian officials warned Israel of the possibility of Cairo suspending its obligations under the Camp David peace treaty between the two sides if the Israeli army attacks Rafah.
Two Egyptian security sources told Al Jazeera that Cairo had sent around 40 tanks and armored personnel carriers to northeastern Sinai in the past two weeks, coinciding with Israeli officials’ talk of carrying out a military operation in the densely populated city with hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians.
Tel Aviv does not seem to heed the Egyptian warnings, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday that he was moving forward with a plan to invade Rafah city and revealed a plan to evacuate its residents, estimated at one million and 400 thousand people.
Netanyahu, in an interview with ABC News, said that those who tell Israel not to invade Rafah are essentially saying that Israel should lose the war and abandon the Islamic resistance movement Hamas to remain in Gaza.
Amid Israeli insistence on invading Rafah, observers raise two questions: first, how serious is the Egyptian threat to suspend the Camp David agreement signed between Egypt and Israel in 1979, which at the time was a breach of the united Arab front’s refusal to deal with the occupation? The second question is: what remains of Camp David after Israeli violations of the military protocol through the invasion of Rafah and the control of the Philadelphia Axis border between Gaza and Egypt that the Israelis have expressed intentions to control?
Restrictions
The peace treaty was signed between former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and former Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin in Washington in 1979.
The treaty stated that “mutually agreed security arrangements shall be established, including limited armament in Egyptian and Israeli territories with the presence of UN forces and observers,” leaving the details to an additional protocol called “Annex I.”
The treaty allows for adjustments to the agreed-upon security arrangements upon the request and agreement of both parties.
The treaty affected Egypt’s military presence in Sinai due to the restrictions imposed on the size and distribution of Egyptian forces in the area, which was divided into three zones.
The additional protocol regarding armament areas in Egyptian territories posed a security dilemma that particularly concerned Egyptian authorities in Area C, where armed and unlawful groups were said to settle in the area as a safe haven amid dozens of kilometers of mountains and forests.
Red Lines
As the Israeli aggression on Gaza escalated and Israeli officials discussed plans to evacuate Gaza residents to Sinai, Egypt considered this a red line, with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi expressing his country’s rejection of the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza either through internal displacement or outside their territories, especially to Sinai.
Talk of the Philadelphia Axis border between Gaza and Egypt resurfaced after Netanyahu spoke last month about Israel’s need to fully control it.
Netanyahu said on January 30th that “the Philadelphia Axis must be under our control, and it must be closed.” He added, “It is clear that any other arrangement will not ensure disarmament that we seek.”
The Philadelphia Axis, also known as the Salah al-Din Axis, is located within a buffer zone under the Camp David agreement, extending along the Egyptian border with Gaza from the Mediterranean Sea to the Kerem Shalom crossing.
In response to Netanyahu’s statements, Cairo considered any interference with the axis a red line. Diaa Rashwan, head of Egypt’s official Intelligence Agency, said in a statement that any Israeli move towards occupying the Salah al-Din axis (Philadelphia) would pose a serious and grave threat to Egyptian-Israeli relations.
Rashwan stated, “It must be emphasized here that any Israeli action in this direction will pose a serious and grave threat to Egyptian-Israeli relations because Egypt, in addition to being a state that respects its international obligations, is capable of defending its interests, sovereignty over its land, and borders.”
With Israel amassing forces to invade Rafah, ignoring international warnings and the Egyptian stance, the Russian newspaper Noviye Izvestia published a report titled “Will a War Break Out Between Israel and Egypt?” addressing the escalation on the Egyptian border with Gaza and the potential confrontation between Cairo and Tel Aviv.
Meanwhile, a report by The New York Times indicated that Egypt is closely monitoring the growing pressures on its borders with Gaza, reinforcing its military presence on the border and warning Israel against any steps that could force Gazans to enter Egyptian territories.
The Associated Press published a report highlighting the repercussions of canceling the Camp David accords if Egypt implements its threat, stating that such a move would pressure the Israeli army. The treaty significantly limits the number of forces on both sides of the Israel-Egypt border, enabling the Israeli army to focus on threats from other fronts, specifically the northern front with Lebanon.
The agency mentioned that canceling the treaty would deprive Israel of the peace it enjoyed on its southern border and that bolstering forces on the Egyptian border would pose an economic burden on a struggling Egyptian economy.
The step would also have consequences for Egypt, which receives billions in American aid, with the suspension of the treaty jeopardizing that aid. Additionally, the significant military reinforcement to Sinai would strain the struggling Egyptian economy.
