Rome’s Return: The Strategy of Italy Towards the Horn of Africa
With broad smiles, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Cozzi “Tsyehi” with the first aircraft manufactured in Italy in 1935 and seized by the Italian government during its famous invasion of Abyssinia in the 1930s.
This image encapsulates Rome’s attempt to reshape its relationship with the Horn of Africa, a region of its former influence, and to build a new partnership beyond the colonial image stored in the memories of its inhabitants. This new endeavor falls within Italy’s remarkable activity in recent years to bolster Rome’s presence in the region.
Italy’s paramount importance for the region east of the African continent is evident in its classification as a priority area in the Strategic Partnership with Africa document issued in 2020. This underscores Rome’s focus on key issues in the region, such as combating irregular migration.
Italy’s Persistent Headache
Due to its geographic location in Southern Europe, Italy has become a major entry point for irregular migrants to the continent, with their numbers reaching 172,000 in 2021 and 2022, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency due to the escalating numbers.
In this context, the Horn of Africa represents a major source of this migrant influx, with Eritrea alone accounting for one of the top ten nationalities reaching Italian shores between 2014 and 2022. Eritreans constituted up to 25% of this category in some years, as highlighted in a report by the Italian Institute for the Study of Migration (ISUM).
This continuous influx has made the issue of irregular migration a contentious and competitive topic, influencing Italian politics and thrusting the Horn of Africa to the top of Rome’s priorities. Consequently, officials have embarked on numerous visits to countries in the region, promising to find a solution to this dilemma.
The current Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, is no exception, pledging to halt human waves coming from Africa. Success in achieving significant progress on this issue would translate into a massive increase in her political and popular support, as well as alleviate the economic burdens associated with fulfilling the needs of these migrants. Expenditure on housing centers and reception services amounted to over €2 billion in 2022, down from €2.77 billion in 2018.
In addition to the above, Rome is keen on dispelling criticisms of its policies regarding combating irregular migration, as evidenced in a report issued by Human Rights Watch in 2023, which described some of the Italian government’s programs as “flawed”.
A Bridge for Energy
Investing in the energy sector is a priority for Italy in relation to the Horn of Africa. Rome aims to position itself as a center for energy supply to Europe, benefiting from its location on the shores of the Mediterranean and serving as an entry point to the old continent.
In an article, the President of the European Council on Foreign Relations, Arturo Varvelli, suggested that the war in Ukraine and its consequences have intensified Italy’s ambition. The tension will perpetuate the strain in European-Russian relations for a long time, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Therefore, this practically signals the death of the German dream of becoming the primary transit point for Russian gas, paving the way for other projects, including Rome’s.
In this context, the Horn of Africa holds great significance, as it contains large reserves of untapped oil and gas. Ethiopia announced the discovery of 7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Somali region, while some geological surveys estimate Somalia’s waters to hold substantial oil reserves of around 30 billion barrels.
The Italian company, Eni, is one of the largest investors in the energy sector in East Africa, with activities in offshore wells in Somalia.
Economic Motives
Italy’s shift towards Africa over the past decade has been driven by Rome’s search for an outlet to escape the long period of economic difficulties linked to the 2008 global financial crisis and its aftermath. The continent’s favorable economic performance in many countries south of the Sahara has spurred Rome to encourage its companies to invest in Africa.
In this regard, trade between Rome and Addis Ababa witnessed significant growth, with Italy becoming Ethiopia’s largest source and the third-largest importer in Europe.
Italian investments in the Horn of Africa cover diverse sectors. The Italian energy giant, Eni, is active in the Lamu Basin in Kenya. Additionally, it invests in biofuel projects in the same country, providing 25,000 employment opportunities. Italian business activities have also been prominent in the infrastructure sector, with the giant company, Webuild, constructing the Gibe III and Renaissance dams in Ethiopia.
Regional Stability
Italy’s National Strategy towards Africa, issued in 2020, called for Rome to play a leading role in ensuring stability and peace in the Horn of Africa. The various forms of security threats and disruptions in the region have transformed it into one of the main hotspots for irregular migration to Europe through Italy. Moreover, the proximity of the region to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait has enhanced its geopolitical and geoeconomic significance for Rome. This waterway serves as a crucial passage for international trade, where Italy stands as one of the world’s top seven economies participating in it.
In this context, Rome has been actively engaged in the Atlanta operation to combat piracy in the Somali waters. It also established a military base in Djibouti, in addition to contributing to training the Somali police and military. Recently, it has become one of the primary advocates for forming a European naval force in the Red Sea to address the challenges posed by recent Houthi activity.
The Matti Plan
The Italian-African Summit was an opportunity for Prime Minister Meloni to announce her vision titled “The Italian-African Strategic Plan: The Matti Plan,” which will form the backbone of Italy’s policy towards Africa, significantly influencing Rome’s activities in the Horn of Africa.
The Matti plan represents a point where Rome’s strategic interests intersect with a wide-ranging program of investments and partnerships in the energy sector. It aims to accelerate the development of African countries, contributing to curbing irregular migration through developmental cooperation, support for entrepreneurship, and the promotion of sustainable and mutual development.
Through this plan, Meloni seeks to offer a different approach based on partnership and equality, moving away from the exploitation associated with the policies of other countries, like France, which has angered Africans. It is a geosecurity approach aiming to secure Rome’s position in a continent that has turned into a battlefield for fierce competition between international and regional forces in what is described as “new rivalry for Africa.”
Diplomacy of Development Cooperation
One aspect of Italy’s presence in the region lies in the diplomacy of development cooperation, which was acknowledged as an integral part of Italy’s foreign policy through bilateral and multilateral partnerships.
In this context, Italian researcher Nino Sergio explains that the countries of the Horn of Africa were among those prioritized in Italian cooperation programs. Between 2021 and 2023, the focus was primarily on Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Sudan.
From 2021 to 2023, the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation reports that it spent around €110 million in Ethiopia alone and approximately €43 million in Somalia on activities ranging from mining, education, training, health, manufacturing to emergency response.
Eritrea’s Summit Surprise
The interest of the Horn of Africa countries in their relationship with Italy is evident through the participation of their leaders in various bilateral and multilateral summits. The participation of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in the Italy-Africa Summit was a notable event, marking his first visit to Europe in nearly a decade.
The multiple meetings of Afwerki in Rome reveal Eritrea’s desire to obtain unconditional investments and assistance, without the implementation of internal reforms relating to human rights abuses. A UN report has accused Eritrea of engaging in practices that could amount to crimes against humanity.
Eritrea’s participation also signals an openness to developing its ties with Europe through Rome, which has maintained a degree of warmth in its relationship with the country, unlike other Western powers.
Somalia Amid the Battle
In addition to aid and investments, security and military files take precedence in Mogadishu’s quest for support to enhance its capacity to combat the al-Shabab militant group, including assistance in lifting the UN arms embargo lifted in December 2023 after more than three decades.
On the other hand, Mogadishu is rallying international support in its diplomatic battle to undermine Ethiopia’s steps towards gaining a naval base in return for recognizing the independence of the breakaway territory of Somaliland. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud stated in his speech at the summit that “cooperation between Africa and Italy cannot be effective if an African state violates another’s borders, and an example of this is Ethiopia’s failed attempt to intervene in our country’s independence.”
Ethiopia and Economic Rehabilitation
Ethiopia, eager for investments and economic support, sees its partnership with Rome as one of the motivations for its struggling economy due to the war in Tigray and its aftermath.
Moreover, Addis Ababa aims to regain Western support for its role as a dominant ally in the Horn of Africa, which has diminished due to the severe tensions between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and the United States and the Western system, arising from various issues, including the war in Tigray.
The translated post preserves all the images and illustrations from the original news, maintaining their placement.
