Secret Meetings: Will India-Afghanistan Relations Thaw Under the Taliban?

by Rachel
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Kabul – The Taliban's takeover of the Afghan capital Kabul in 2021 has signaled a new chapter in Afghan-Indian relations since the emergence of the movement in 1994. During that period, India sided with the Northern Alliance led by the late Afghan commander Ahmed Shah Massoud and did not attempt to approach the Taliban which ruled Afghanistan for six years in the 1990s.

The relationship between the two parties experienced a 28-year boycott, and throughout the presence of the American and foreign forces in Afghanistan, New Delhi supported the previous Afghan government. The leaders of both nations signed a strategic partnership agreement during the visit of former Afghan President Hamid Karzai to India in 2011.

As peace negotiations commenced between the United States and the Taliban in Qatar in 2019, India appointed an expert on Afghan affairs as its ambassador to Doha to build relations with the movement, which had a political office there.

Since that period, and due to changing global attitudes from hostility to engagement with the Taliban, India has adjusted its strategy accordingly and began interacting with the movement. When Kabul fell into the hands of the Taliban, India saw limited space for itself in Afghanistan until a year after the movement came to power.

A New Chapter

The last ambassador of the former Afghan government in India, Fareed Mamundzay, told Al Jazeera Net, "The relationship between New Delhi and the current Afghan government led by the Taliban is evolving and has improved significantly."

He added, "India returned to Afghanistan in 2022, reopened its embassy in Kabul, and an Indian delegation visited Kabul and met with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. There are secret, informal meetings between the two sides to solidify this relationship."

So, what is India's policy towards Afghanistan, and what does it want from the Taliban?

Following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban's rise to power, India's approach seemed reactionary, closing its embassy in Kabul and withdrawing its diplomatic staff, limiting its interactions with the movement to providing humanitarian aid to the Afghan people and not the new Taliban government.

A source in the Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Al Jazeera Net, "After the military and political shift in Afghanistan, the Indians left the country with the United States and closed their embassy. After reevaluating its policy toward Kabul, India now desires to start anew with the current Afghan government."

The source added, "India dispatched a diplomatic team dubbed the 'technical team,' recognizing the political realities in Afghanistan and understanding that its presence in Kabul is preferential for both parties. India wants to deal with the Taliban, but prefers to keep the matter confidential until after parliamentary elections are concluded."

For its part, the Afghan government has made serious efforts to turn a new page with India, seeking developmental assistance and financing of Indian projects in the country. New Delhi has invested more than $3 billion in Afghanistan.

According to sources in the Afghan Foreign Ministry, Afghan officials have secretly met with Indian representatives at regional and international meetings on Afghanistan.

Obstacles

Afghan government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid explained to Al Jazeera Net, "Our relationship with India in the economic and trade sector is going well, with some diplomatic challenges that will soon be addressed. We need some time. India is an important regional country, and both the Islamic Emirate and Afghans need it. We want to build relations with all neighboring countries, including India."

India's stance on recognizing the new Afghan government aligns with the international community, but it is actively engaging with Afghan authorities to reopen its consulates in major cities such as Jalalabad, Herat, and Mazar-e-Sharif and is insistent on reopening its consulate in Kandahar, home to Taliban leader Sheikh Hebatullah Akhundzada.

Continuing its cooperation, India interacts with the National University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology in Kandahar by offering online scholarships. An Indian embassy source in Kabul told Al Jazeera Net, "India has historic ties with Afghanistan and is regionally one of the largest donors to Kabul over the past two decades."

The source added, "We have more than 500 development projects across Afghanistan and are committed to completing them. We've granted scholarships to the university, and our technical team in Kabul is overseeing these projects, in addition to supporting humanitarian aid."

India, which supported the opposition front during the Taliban's first rule, didn't allow its former allies to remain on its territory this time and declined their asylum requests. Instead, it has reopened its embassy in Taliban-controlled Kabul, recognizing that its former allies are currently unable to change the situation in Afghanistan, with minimal impact on the political and security landscape.

Competition

Former Afghan Ambassador Fareed Mamundzay added to Al Jazeera Net, "India has key demands in Afghanistan, including security guarantees from the current government and curbing militant groups like 'Jaish-e-Mohammed' and 'Lashkar-e-Taiba,' which threaten India's security and its citizens."

He continued, "Similarly, there is regional competition with Pakistan, and both nations' embassies are actively pursuing it. New Delhi expects the Taliban to give it the same level of attention it has afforded China and Pakistan."

India continues to compete with China and oppose Pakistan in Afghanistan, realizing that its absence from the Afghan scene and severing ties with Kabul would not benefit it. Conversely, it would leave the Taliban and Afghanistan to its rivals and adversaries.

The relationship between Afghanistan and India was exceptionally friendly during the presidency of Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani. The aid provided by India to Kabul gave it significant influence compared to Pakistan. When the Taliban seized power, India considered all achievements made in building trust and expanding its influence in the previous Afghan government to have been lost.

India faced three options: to turn its back on Afghanistan and accept the loss to Pakistan, enter into a close alliance with the Taliban's opponents and thus maintain its influence in Kabul, or choose to engage with the Taliban and attempt to break Pakistani dominance in Afghanistan.

India chose the third option, preferring to deal with the Taliban. An Afghan foreign ministry source told Al Jazeera Net, "India realized that Pakistan's influence over the new Afghan government wasn't as New Delhi perceived. Afghanistan is an independent state, considering its interests, and is not subservient to anyone in its foreign policy, no matter what. I believe things will improve soon."

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