The odds for the semi-final matches of the Africa Cup of Nations are heating up in the Ivory Coast. In this 34th edition of the prestigious continental championship, four former title-winning teams are set to face off in intense encounters, each with different characteristics and diverse ambitions.
Nigeria, an experienced contender, will take on the returning South Africa, while Ivory Coast, the “miracle” of this edition and the host, will face the evolved Democratic Republic of the Congo. Tomorrow, Ivory Coast will meet the Democratic Republic of the Congo at the Hassan Wattara Stadium, while Nigeria will clash with South Africa at the Al Salam Stadium.
Offensive Edge and Defensive Resilience
Making their 15th appearance in the continental showcase, Nigeria holds just one objective – securing a spot in the final. Despite entering the tournament as favorites, the “Super Eagles” have faced challenges, including a draw against Equatorial Guinea (1-1) and narrow victories over Ivory Coast and Guinea-Bissau, both by a single goal.
Following the consistent approach of their Portuguese coach, Jose Peseiro, who repeatedly emphasized “not conceding goals first,” Nigeria has successfully balanced offensive prowess, scoring six goals, with defensive solidity, maintaining clean sheets for four consecutive matches, a record unmatched since September and October 2018.
This equilibrium in performance led to a comfortable 2-0 victory over the formidable Cameroon in the round of 16 and a 1-0 triumph over Angola in the quarter-finals, positioning Victor Osimhen and his teammates as natural contenders to reach the final. According to Opta, Nigeria is now 43% likely to win the title since Senegal, the defending champion, was eliminated in the round of 16.
Return of the Underdogs
Under the leadership of Belgian coach Hugo Broos, who claimed the African title with Cameroon in 2017, and goalkeeper Ronwen Williams, known for his penalty-saving skills, South Africa has made a resurgence in this edition. The African champion of 1996 and runner-up in 1998, South Africa aims to challenge the top teams, aspiring to reach the final, although history favors Nigeria, winning seven out of 12 previous encounters.
With eight first-team players representing Mamelodi Sundowns, one of the best teams in Africa, “Bafana Bafana” adopts a collective style, emphasizing swift ball circulation, particularly in the final third of the pitch. This strategy exerts intense pressure on opponents, leading to defensive mistakes, which the likes of Percy Tau aim to exploit to find the net.
The quick and unexpected attack will be a key tactic for the Belgian coach to unlock Nigeria’s sturdy defense and potentially secure an early goal, bolstering South Africa’s chances of reaching the dream final. According to Opta, South Africa has transitioned from a 2.1% chance of lifting the cup at the start of the tournament to now being the third favorite among the remaining four teams, with an 18.6% probability.
United in Pursuit of the Dream
“Exactly a year ago, everyone laughed at us. But today, we are in the semi-finals,” commented Chancel Mbemba on the deserving qualification of the Democratic Republic of the Congo after defeating Guinea 3-1. In this edition, the team led by French coach Sébastien Desabre has capitalized on the high concentration and physical strength of Morocco, Egypt, and Guinea, overcoming them through resilience.
After four goalless draws against Zambia, Morocco, Tanzania, and a 1-1 draw against Egypt followed by a triumph in a penalty shootout, the “Leopards” finally secured a victory in regular time in the quarter-finals against Mali. Meanwhile, Guinea looks to restore the glory it last achieved 50 years ago in 1968 (as Congo-Kinshasa), while the Congolese possess the technical, physical, and tactical qualities to continue pursuing their dream against Ivory Coast. According to Opta, the Leopards have a superior chance of 32% to surpass Ivory Coast and reach the final.
Continuing the “Miracle”
On January 22, 2024, the Ivorian national team made headlines worldwide after a convincing victory over Equatorial Guinea, placing them on the brink of elimination in the group stage. However, Morocco’s 1-0 win against Zambia and Mozambique’s 2-2 draw against Ghana revived the hopes of the Ivorians, who advanced as one of the best third-placed teams.
Since then, the “Elephants” have risen and defeated formidable opponents, including Senegal, the defending champions, in a penalty shootout, and Mali with a 2-1 victory in extra time. Described as a “comeback from hell,” the Ivorian team, alongside the support of the prolific Frank Kessié and the fans, hopes to tip the scales in this tournament and replicate the scenarios of Italy in the 1982 World Cup and Portugal in Euro 2016, where they narrowly avoided early exits to ultimately claim the trophy.
Despite being without Odilon Kossonou, Omar Diakité, and Serge Aurier due to suspension, the Ivorian squad remains determined to achieve a remarkable feat, enabling the entire nation to dream of a third star on their jersey after the triumphs in 1992 and 2015. Opta’s predictions suggest that Ivory Coast, initially the second favorite behind Nigeria before the tournament, now holds a 41.3% chance of securing a spot in the final.
The stage is set for an exhilarating semi-final showdown as the top African teams vie for their place in the final. As the competition intensifies, the continent eagerly awaits the crowning of a new champion in this edition of the Africa Cup of Nations.
