The Iranian missile and drone bombardment of the Sabzkouh area near the city of Panjgur in the western Pakistani province of Balochistan has raised questions regarding the future of the security situation in a region that has been experiencing fragile conditions for years.
Islamabad’s response to the Iranian bombing did not delay, as Pakistani forces shelled areas in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan, further complicating the situation, particularly since both countries used the same pretext for the mutual bombardment: “pursuing armed terrorist groups”.
A Pakistani intelligence official reported to Reuters, “The Pakistani shelling targeted headquarters of the Baluchistan Liberation Organization, a separatist armed Baloch movement active within Pakistan’s Balochistan province”.
Despite past tensions in relations, these unprecedented strikes between two neighbors sharing nearly 700 kilometers of land border are noteworthy.
Questions About Timing
The timing of the Iranian bombardment coincided with a meeting between Pakistan’s interim Prime Minister Anwar ul Haq Kakar and Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian in Switzerland on the sidelines of the Davos Forum.
The Iranian attack also came ahead of a visit by Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Iran’s special representative and ambassador to Afghanistan, to Islamabad with the aim of forming a liaison committee for regional coordination on Afghanistan.
Moreover, the strike coincided with reports from Iran’s IRNA news agency about joint naval exercises between the Pakistani and Iranian navies.
This series of events has led to widespread speculation about the reasons behind the specific timing of these strikes.
Pretexts for Mutual Bombing
Iran announced its bombing inside Pakistani territory targeted bases of the “Jaish al-Adl” organization, which Iranian media call “Jaish al-Zulm”, accusing it of ties to Israel and using Pakistani territory as a launch-pad for military attacks in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province.
Pakistan condemned the Iranian shelling, considering it a “blatant violation” of its sovereignty, and prevented the Iranian ambassador from returning to Islamabad. Pakistan also summoned its ambassador from Tehran in response to the Iranian shelling.
Islamabad stressed that its options are open to respond to the “unjustified” Iranian shelling, according to Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zahra Baloch. The Pakistani military also responded with strikes targeting the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan.
Interestingly, the Iranian Foreign Minister linked his country’s bombardment of targets in Pakistan, Syria, and Iraq at the Davos Forum to their connections with Israel and its foreign intelligence service, the Mossad.
The city of Panjgur in the province of Balochistan, western Pakistan (AFP)
Messages for Domestic and International Audiences
Analysts believe that the Iranian shelling was part of Tehran’s display of strength in response to American and Israeli threats due to Iran’s support for resistance in Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen.
This action sends a message that Iran is capable of extending the conflict beyond the American will to keep the Israeli war on the Palestinian people in Gaza isolated there.
Another possible explanation for the shelling is as a reaction to recent bombings in Kerman, which were claimed by the Islamic State organization, while Iran accused the Mossad of responsibility. In this regard, the Iranian leadership intends to send dual messages both domestically and internationally that it is capable of responding.
Escalation or Calming?
Analysts believe it unlikely that the current escalation will lead to war between the two nations, due to various surrounding economic and political reasons preventing the tension from rolling towards war.
The political and economic situation in Pakistan does not facilitate escalation with Iran, especially since the country awaits parliamentary elections next month, and its interim unelected government lacks the mandate to ignite a war.
Conversely, opening a war front with Pakistan does not serve Iran’s interests given its issues at external, regional, and domestic levels.
Calls for de-escalation include statements from Fazl-ur-Rehman, leader of Pakistan’s Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party, urging against further escalation with Iran. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, from his jail cell in Rawalpindi, called for resolving differences through dialogue and diplomatic channels in a statement published by the Pakistani newspaper “Nawaiwaqt”.
Referring to the missile attacks between Iran and Pakistan, Iranian reformist activist Ahmad Zeidabadi said, “These cannot continue since military confrontation serves neither country”.
To prevent a recurrence, Iranian writer Hassan Beheshti Pour suggested starting a series of security dialogues between Iran, Pakistan, Iraq, and Turkey to prevent terrorists from continuing their activities in the region.
Relationship Complexities
The negative impacts of such escalation on the relations between two neighboring nations cannot be overlooked, especially since sectarian tensions have often colored the extensive ties between the two countries.
Pakistani media have blamed Iran for fomenting sectarian issues between Sunnis and Shias by supporting pro-Iranian Shia groups within Pakistan.
This has escalated to accusations against Tehran for establishing an armed group named “Zainebiyoun” composed of Pakistani Shia youth fighting in Syria alongside the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, similar to Afghan Shia militias known as “Fatimiyoun”. This poses a security threat to Pakistan, which fears a repetition of the Taliban experience in another form.
Border Triangle
Another negative contributor to relations is the gradual increase in armed attacks within the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan. These attacks, mostly targeting the Iranian security forces, especially the Revolutionary Guard in charge of securing a border triangle between Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan, have previously resulted in the death and injury of numerous officers and soldiers.
Groups from within Pakistan have variously captured several Iranian officers and military personnel, which has typically led to limited escalations along the border that would soon end.
However, this time the escalation is unprecedented, raising fears of war between two countries, each holding several reasons to quash it. Consequently, it is likely that the affair will not escalate, and the political leaderships in both countries will seek calm despite the detrimental effects on their relations.
In efforts to mediate between the two countries, Beijing expressed its readiness, with Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, stating during a regular press conference, “The Chinese side sincerely hopes that both parties will de-escalate, exercise restraint, and avoid escalating tensions”.
