Two American researchers have described the Islamic Resistance Movement's (Hamas) attack on Israel on October 7th as a "stunning tactical success" and questioned what the movement could claim to have achieved, despite the Israeli army steadily tightening its grip on Gaza, effectively leaving many parts of the sector in ruins and resulting in over 19,000 Palestinian casualties.
The researchers, Daniel Byman and Dylanie Dav – the former being a professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, and the latter, a Masters student in the Security Studies Program at the same university – believe it is worthwhile to consider what Hamas has accomplished and failed by examining three different dimensions: its conflict with Israel, the internal Palestinian arena, and its international stance.
Successes Against Israel
Regarding its conflict with Israel, the Hamas attack on October 7th succeeded in inflicting pain on Israel and shattering its sense of security, both of which are aims of the movement. The attack exposed the firmly held belief of Benjamin Netanyahu's government that the movement lacked the intention and capabilities to launch a broad-scale attack on Israel.
This assumption left Israel unprepared to face the major offensive by Hamas, and the failure of Israeli intelligence was a greater success than the movement's planners had anticipated. It will leave deep psychological scars on Israelis and force Tel Aviv to reassess its approach to security going forward.
Israel's response could also potentially strengthen Hamas's position as it managed to bring the Palestinian issue back to the forefront of global news. The Israeli military campaign in Gaza, despite the extremely high costs to civilians in Gaza, keeps the Palestinian case at the forefront of headlines.
The land attack also serves Hamas's narrative of Israeli aggression, isolates Israel from its neighbors, and worsens regional tensions. In the long run, the conflict will foster a new generation of Gazans with grievances against Israel, potentially bolstering support for Hamas in the future.
Successes Within the Palestinian Community
Hamas has regained the credentials of resistance among the Palestinian people, with its effective attacks increasing the overall support for resistance and specifically restoring its credentials.
Limited polls of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, along with narrative reports indicate strong support for the October 7th attack, and the Israeli response in both Gaza and the West Bank has angered many Palestinians not supportive of Hamas.
The exchange of Palestinian prisoners for the Israeli captives taken by Hamas on the day of the attack is a clear victory for the movement, which can argue that its attacks – not the negotiations of the competing Palestinian Authority – led to the release of the prisoners.
International Successes
The researchers observe that the Palestinian cause is now front and center after being at the bottom of the world's priorities, and Israel's response to the Hamas attack reinforces the narratives depicting Israel as an occupying force brutally repressing Palestinians. The ongoing conflict and subsequent humanitarian crisis in Gaza undermine Israel's image in the region and bolster support for those opposing it, such as Iran, while temporarily halting US-supported normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
(The destruction caused by Israeli bombardment in Al-Rimal neighborhood, northeast Gaza)
Beyond the Middle East, the war has shown a noticeable support for the Palestinian cause with pro-Palestinian demonstrations across Europe. With few exceptions, the narrative of the Global South has embraced the Palestinian story, portraying the war as a powerful state attacking an unarmed people, while lamenting what many consider the West's hypocrisy in defending Ukraine while ignoring the rights of Palestinians.
The researchers also noted that Hamas could even claim some victories in the United States. Despite most Republicans and President Joe Biden supporting Israel, the Democratic Party is divided with the younger Democrats particularly critical of Israel.
