Kyiv- The year 2023 has been anything but easy for Ukraine in the continued onslaught of the Russian war that started in February 2022, spanning across several widespread fronts. However, the hallmark of this year has been the disappointing performance of Ukraine’s counter-offensive operations for which Kyiv, with the aid of its so-called "Western partners," had been marshaling resources for many months.
Owing to delays in receiving assistance, as confirmed by officials, the launch of these operations slipped from the expected spring timeline to early June. Kyiv only managed to reclaim a few tens of square kilometers in sporadic locations within the Donetsk and Zaporizhia provinces in the southeast, which continue to be hotspots despite announcements of "liberation."
Thus, it turned out that the pre-operation hype was significantly greater than their actual impact on the ground, unlike last year's operations where Kyiv regained near-complete control of hundreds of kilometers in provinces such as Kharkiv to the east, and Kherson and Mykolaiv to the south.
Experts say that both American and European interests have shifted from supporting Kyiv to backing Israel (Reuters).
Russian Losses
Nevertheless, Ivan Stopak, a military expert at the "Ukrainian Institute for the Future" and former military security advisor in the Ukrainian parliament, believes—in conversation with Al Jazeera Net—that the most significant achievement for his country has been the failure of all Russian attempts to acquire new Ukrainian territory.
Stopak contends that Russia's transition to a defensive stance and its few hundred meters of gradual advancement do not qualify as a success, nor do they justify the significant losses sustained by their forces during the year. According to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff, Moscow lost approximately 235,000 soldiers in 2023, pushing the total to over 340,000 since the war began. Russia denies these figures and responds with large casualty numbers for the Ukrainian army, which Kyiv refutes.
In 2023, Ukraine seems to have compensated for its battlefield setbacks by turning to extensive and notable bombardments of sensitive and vital locations deep within Russian territory, including Moscow and the Kremlin building.
Ukraine has continued to target roads, logistical sites, and military bases controlled by Russia in the "occupied provinces," notably the Crimean Peninsula, especially the naval base in Sevastopol.
Expert Ivan Stopak states that this undermines Moscow's control over the occupied Ukrainian territories, paving the way for their eventual liberation, even if it proceeds slowly in reality.
Contrary to the previous year, both sides have prominently resorted to the use of aerial and marine drones for bombardment and targeting operations in 2023, replacing the large number of missiles that Russia previously launched.
Political Disputes
The reason for this shift, according to many observers, is Moscow's dwindling costly missile stock, which has been increasingly unable to reach its targets in Kyiv and other locations. This is particularly after Ukraine boosted its defensive capabilities with advanced air defense systems in 2023, most notably the American Patriot and German Iris systems.
It's worth noting that the air defenses provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the year, despite its authorities requesting more, have played a significant role in protecting the capital and other major cities from successful missile strikes.
These defenses have also secured power stations and their networks; thus, the country did not experience significant widespread power outages as it did towards the end of the previous year.
Against the backdrop of the war and its failures, the second half of 2023 unveiled significant rifts between Ukraine's political and military leadership, especially between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Chief of General Staff Valeriy Zaluzhnyi.
The disputes, according to expert Stopak, stem from poor judgment and strategic miscalculations regarding the war's direction, followed by an exchange of accusations between the presidential and defense institutions. Signs of these included the dismissal of the Defense Minister and continuous talk about the inevitability of Zaluzhnyi's dismissal as well.
Moreover, the latter half of 2023 has seen a noticeable decline in American and European enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine, with predictions pointing toward a worsening situation ahead.
Vasyl Borushchenko, an expert at the "Razumkov Centre for Economic & Political Studies," told Al Jazeera Net, "Russia’s war on Ukraine has exhausted the Western economy more in the past year, leading its principal countries to also experience significant disappointment due to the stalled Ukrainian counter-operations."
He added that the shift in American and European attention from supporting Kyiv to backing Israel in its war on the Gaza Strip cannot be ignored.
"Recovery and Achievements"
Despite the war-ridden Ukrainian economy groaning and its budget deficit nearing $40 billion this year—about half of the budget—the government is talking about "recovery and achievements" that have been made.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has stated that the GDP grew by 3% during 2023 after plummeting by nearly 29% the previous year, and inflation rates dropped to around 8 and 9% after reaching 26.6% in 2022.
Indeed, the national currency "Hryvnia" strengthened against the dollar, dropping from about 42 to around 37.3 Hryvnia. However, many people doubt the announced growth and inflation numbers, lamenting the doubling of private service prices and widespread cost of living increases in stores and markets.
Despite all these challenges, Ukrainian officials are proud of their shuttle visits, meetings, and communications with European leaders, culminating in the start of membership negotiations with the European Union at the end of the year.
Officials assert that the European stance unanimously emphasizes the importance of Ukraine's membership after meeting many conditions and standards, regardless of wartime circumstances and Hungary's opposition to this issue.
Expert Borushchenko notes, "We must understand that the decision on membership, whether in the European Union or even NATO, will ultimately be political, based on the member states' needs and even the extent of their investment in supporting Ukraine, which has been substantial."
