The anticipation for the decisive date of the presidential elections in November next year, the United States is experiencing a state of scrutiny and apprehension over the atmosphere surrounding these elections, which observers have described as fraught with many risks and not like its predecessors.
In this report, we address a number of reports and positions conveyed by the French media during the past period regarding their analysis of the most prominent concerns that the American elections could entail.
Between Biden and Trump
The primary source of this concern stems from the possibility of a repeat of the 2020 election race scenario between the current President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump, both controversial candidates in terms of personality and positions.
Biden’s old age and health condition raise concerns (French)
Biden’s Old Age
On the one hand, President Biden’s advanced age raises concerns domestically and internationally, as he is the oldest president the United States has ever known and will turn 81 in November next year.
According to a poll published by the French magazine “L’Obs” previously, 77% of voters believe that Biden is too old to manage the country until January 2029, and they fear such an outcome.
The magazine’s editorial commented that “American democracy has turned into a gerontocracy, and while age sometimes brings wisdom to political leaders, it is also synonymous with hesitation and frailty.”
On the other hand, Le Monde newspaper commented in an editorial that “the danger that threatens to undermine Joe Biden, the candidate for re-election in 2024, is none other than Joe Biden himself,” pointing out that at the age of 80, the oldest president in the history of the United States recognizes that any slight decline in overall performance will now be subject to widespread criticism.
Therefore, Biden’s old age also raises external concerns among his allies, especially among Europeans, where Europe – more than ever since the end of the Cold War – relies on Washington and its security umbrella in the face of the Russian threat.
Trump’s Personality
On the other hand, Trump’s personality is also a cause for concern, especially since his political positions – as a former President of the United States – are not unfamiliar to the domestic and international public opinion.
Professor at the Institute of Political Science in Paris, Sylvie Laurent, believes that the problem lies not in Trump himself but in the entire governing system.
In an interview with the French media outlet “MediaPart” in early February, the American affairs specialist stressed that “the question we need to ask is about the rule of law in a country torn apart by social inequalities for a long time.”
She added, “Hence, the danger is not that Donald Trump is a dictator, but that democracy chooses Donald Trump,” explaining that the American judicial arsenal has so far failed to curb Trump’s political ambitions.
As a result, the door is open to all sorts of excesses in rhetoric and practice, as evidenced by Trump’s fiery and aggressive remarks towards his opponents.
For example, during his election campaign in New Hampshire in November 2023, he stated, “We are committed to eliminating the communist Marxist and leftist thugs who live like insects, even within our borders. They lie, steal, and deceive. In the elections, they are ready to do anything. They are ready to do anything, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America and the American dream.”
He further added in his speech that “the real threat is not from the far-right, the real threat is from the radical left, and this threat is growing every day. The threat from external forces is much less deadly and dangerous than the threat from within.”
Political Violence Trend
Such populist discourse has found supporters in American society, especially among those advocating for the right to own weapons for self-defense and to counter internal threats, a sentiment backed by arms lobby companies deeply rooted in the United States.
The idea of giving a political role to former soldiers and officers who have had military experience is appealing to many, including Matthias Leib, a former soldier in Bosnia and a candidate for the South Carolina Senate in June next year, raising the slogan “We have enough parliamentarians and lawyers in South Carolina, and we need a few paratroopers.”
Trump supporters have not hesitated to resort to violence against their political opponents or against state institutions, with scenes like the storming of the US House of Representatives building (Capitol) on January 6, 2021, far from forgotten.
This incident led to the disruption of a joint session of Congress to tally the electoral votes and formalize Joe Biden’s election victory, and in its aftermath, it contributed to shaking the image of the United States abroad, after having been seen as a model of democracy around the world.
This underscores that a segment of the American public is no longer showing great interest in foreign policy but rather focusing on domestic issues and priorities, including improving the financial situation of social classes and achieving prosperity.
Calls for Peacefulness
In contrast to the trend of internal political violence, there is a trend calling for peace and avoiding supporting and participating in wars abroad.
Prominent among these are the massive ongoing protests in the United States and abroad for months, protesting the massive support provided by Washington to Israel in its war on Gaza.
Another prominent scene was of some attendees protesting at President Biden’s meeting on January 8 in a church in South Carolina, where the protesters demanded an end to the violence, holding up a banner saying “Your hands are stained with this blood” as Biden spoke about racism, Trump, and the dangers threatening American democracy.
Commenting on this event, Sylvie Laurent said in the same interview with MediaPart, “It is a destructive stance…and I only remind you that, contrary to popular belief, this is not a small extremist group from the Democratic Party. Progressive and liberal Americans who demand an end to the violence in Gaza make up 60% of Americans, nearly 80% of Democrats, and half of Republicans. Consequently, Biden is governing against the majority opinion in his country.”
She added that the second issue is that it is a speech with no other meaning than being heard; it is addressing an audience in South Carolina, and part of its voters are African Americans who are historically linked to the civil rights movement and the idea that the Democratic Party is the party of liberation and justice. He comes to deliver a speech focusing on if you don’t vote for me, injustice and violence await you, at a time when American bombs are killing children every day in Gaza.
Cultural War
With economic and social crises in American society, there emerged a state of ideological polarization between two factions with deep differences, the “conservative” faction usually represented by Republicans, and the “liberal” faction typically associated with the Democratic Party.
Each faction seeks to impose its views and visions on social issues related to values, resulting in a sharp societal division.
A report by Le Monde Diplomatique in January last year regarding the American elections stated that “according to the Republicans, this cultural war will be at the heart of the next presidential elections.”
The newspaper conveyed the feelings of concern among a segment of voters like Bonnie Cleveland, a psychologist who was removed from her position as director of school health in Charleston County, who says that if the Republicans want to establish an authoritarian rule, they already know how to achieve that.
With the presidential campaign in full swing, tension is escalating between supporters of maintaining national religious Christian identity amidst a shrinking isolationist trend, versus those advocating for keeping the United States a great power with influence in the world with a non-committal liberal tendency towards religious values.
Exacerbating the tension is a sense of oppression among social classes worn down by deep-seated capitalism, especially among African Americans who have been disillusioned by Biden’s policies, as reported by Le Monde Diplomatique.
