After nearly two years of arduous negotiations between Turkey and the United States regarding the former’s purchase of 40 American (F-16) fighter jets and approximately 80 upgrade packages, Washington has finally decided that the time has come to finalize the deal. The formal notification presented by the U.S. administration to Congress concerning the deal came in the context of bargaining with Ankara for the latter’s approval of Sweden’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in exchange for Washington’s move to complete the fighter jets deal. However, the U.S. motivations to push through this deal go beyond the Sweden issue, and the bargaining between the two matters played a crucial role in the end.
These motivations began to emerge following the Russian war on Ukraine when Washington realized the need to readjust its tumultuous relationship with Ankara and leverage its valuable geopolitical position for the West in its new conflict with Russia.
Furthermore, the pressures exerted by Washington and European countries on Ankara in recent years, attempting to punish it for its new geopolitical choices and its independent foreign policy, failed to influence its foreign policies and its relations with Russia in particular.
The most important conclusion drawn from the period of major U.S.-Turkish tensions over the past decade is that the American abandonment of balanced relations with Ankara and Athens only led to exacerbation of tensions between the United States’ allies.
In this sense, the West’s openness to Turkey in the past three years was a crucial result of the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the weakness of the Western pressure strategy on Ankara.
Accordingly, the current U.S. move to finalize the fighter jets deal with Turkey is linked to multiple dynamics in American policy towards Ankara, foremost among which is Washington’s attempt to reshape its policy towards both Turkey and Greece. It was not surprising that the United States also worked towards passing a deal to sell Greece (F-35) fighter jets parallelly with the sale of fighter jets to Turkey (F-16).
Here, the historical recent visit of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Athens also highlights how it prompted the United States to move forward in completing the sales to Ankara and Athens.
As much as the Turkish-Greek tensions in recent years provided an opportunity for Washington to strengthen its defense cooperation with Greece to enhance its presence in the eastern Mediterranean and pressure Ankara due to its independent geopolitical choices and rapprochement with Russia, it also worked to weaken Washington’s ability to influence the dynamics of the Turkish-Greek tensions. It appeared during that period that the United States was abandoning its historical approach in balancing its relations with Ankara and Athens.
It can be said that the drift of Turkish-Greek tensions in 2020 to the brink of armed confrontation reflects a fundamental deviation in Washington’s approach from balance in its relations with Turkey and Greece. Therefore, the United States’ simultaneous actions to sell new fighter jets to both Turkey and Greece should be viewed from the perspective of its intention to return to a balanced approach.
This return to a balanced approach brings significant geopolitical benefits to the United States, whether in terms of resetting its relations with a crucial ally like Turkey or in maximizing its ability to influence the new dynamics of the Turkish-Greek relations and making them sustainable in the long run, besides enhancing the harmony within NATO and maximizing the U.S. role in the geopolitical competition with Russia in the Mediterranean.
However, the U.S. military presence in Greece will continue to be a pressure factor in the U.S.-Turkish relations. Still, the American return to a balanced approach can help in creating a new environment in American interactions with Ankara and Athens.
The most important conclusion drawn from a period of major U.S.-Turkish tensions in the past decade is that the American abandonment of balanced relations with Ankara and Athens only led to an exacerbation of tensions between the United States’ allies. The return to a balanced approach not only creates new opportunities for the United States to enhance the current situation in Turkish-Greek relations, but also can help undermine Russia’s ability to take advantage of the Turkish-Western disturbances to deepen its partnership with Ankara.
If the Russian-Ukrainian war forced NATO to adapt to the new challenge with Russia by bringing about a new wave of alliance expansion, it is equally important to work on restoring the strained relations between alliance members themselves, whether concerning Turkey and Greece or Turkey and the United States.
Ultimately, both Turkey and Greece remain indispensable allies for the United States, even if Athens seems closer to Western orientations than Ankara. Amid the tumultuous Middle Eastern environment resulting from the Israeli war on Gaza and the immense challenges facing the United States in maintaining its position and influence in Middle Eastern policies, the importance of Turkey in American policies in the Middle East has become more significant than ever.
For European countries, the American return to a balanced approach between Turkey and Greece also brings significant geopolitical benefits. On the one hand, American involvement will be pivotal in maintaining the calm between Turkey and Greece, preventing their relationship from drifting back into tensions that strained Turkish-European relations in recent years. On the other hand, the new development of relations between Turkey and Greece turning into cooperation in the field of energy becomes extremely important for Europe in its efforts to wean itself off Russian gas.
Amid the Turkish-Greek tensions at the end of the past decade, the belief that the United States began to consider strengthening its relations with Greece as an alternative to its strategic partnership with Turkey helped believe that the partnership with Turkey was still vital for Washington.
However, Washington’s efforts to return to a balanced approach in its relations with Turkey and Greece demonstrate the unreality of this belief and that the partnership with Turkey remains crucial for Washington.
