Sudanese Rapid Support Forces leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemeti, embarked on an unannounced duration African tour starting December 27, stopping by Uganda, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Africa.
The visits drew significant attention from those concerned with Sudanese affairs, sparking a wave of reactions that ranged from welcome to condemnation. Some observers see the tour as an indicator of the host countries' stances towards the parties involved in Sudan's conflict.
Throughout his tour, Hemeti confirmed via his X platform account that he presented his hosts with reasons behind the war's ignition and the roadmap he proposes for a comprehensive solution that would achieve peace in Sudan.
Field Developments
This tour comes in the wake of significant field developments recently seen on the Sudanese stage. The Rapid Support Forces managed to achieve military gains in the west of the country, extending their control over three of the four states in the Darfur region.
December witnessed Hemeti's forces taking control over the pivotal state of Al Jazirah in central Sudan, a move that observers described as a "dangerous turn" in the ongoing war since April 15.
These military shifts accompanied a rise in diplomatic efforts to stem the country's decline. The efforts culminated in a statement issued by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) on December 10, wherein Sudanese Sovereignty Council President and Army Commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan committed to meeting with the Rapid Support Forces leader within 15 days.
However, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry stated that Al-Burhan had conditions for the meeting approval. Later, the Ministry received a notice from its Djibouti counterpart, which currently chairs IGAD, informing them of the postponement of the meeting to the current January.
Public Comeback
Observers believe that Hemeti aims to achieve a set of goals and send various messages in different directions through this tour.
Sudanese writer and political analyst Mohamed El Mubarak says, "Hemeti's first goal through this tour is to make an appearance", explaining that the Rapid Support Forces leader wants to reveal himself and announce his public return to the country's political scene after a six-month absence, which gave rise to varied speculations, including some declaring his death.
El Mubarak adds that the Rapid Support Forces media made sure to highlight this point with media coverage through photos and videos, underlining his welcome by leaders of the visited countries.
In recent months, multiple rumors have swirled around Hemeti's absence, including his death announced by the Sudanese ambassador to Libya, Ibrahim Mohammed Ahmed, and the head of the Umma-Revival and Reform Party, Mubarak Al-Fadil. However, the Rapid Support Forces refuted the killing of their leader, clarifying that public appearances are subject to leadership's discretion.
Hemeti (left) upon his arrival in Addis Ababa (social media platforms)
Rallying Support
El Mubarak opines that Hemeti's movements cannot be separated from his attempt to rally these influential countries in the Sudanese file through their role in IGAD. The organization includes 8 countries, with Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda, which Hemeti visited, being significant weight centers within it. Moreover, Djibouti, which was also included in the tour, hosts the permanent headquarters of the organization.
Amin Dharmas, the foreign relations officer for the Future Sudan Campaign, perceives Hemeti's visit to Ethiopia as particularly special, as it included a meeting with his partners in the coordination of civil democratic forces (Progress) led by Abdullah Hamdok.
During the visit, both parties agreed on a declaration of principles committing to continuing the process of ending the war, with the Rapid Support Forces pledging direct negotiations with the army leadership to cease hostilities.
Dharmas figures that the significance of this agreement for the Rapid Support Forces lies in it being an attempt to rescue him and improve his image after his forces committed the worst crimes against civilians, "which could be called genocide and forced displacement."
Undermining Al-Burhan's Efforts
Analysts see Hemeti's tour as part of his attempts to undermine the efforts made by Al-Burhan with most of these countries' leaders in previous tours. El Mubarak comments that "perhaps there was an understanding concerning the Sudanese army's position and its defense of the state's existence."
In the same vein, Sudanese journalist and analyst Hafez Kabeer asserts that neither of the two sides can push through its own narrative, pointing out that there are two stories to this war, one for the army and another for the Rapid Support Forces. The countries visited by both Al-Burhan and Hemeti play vital roles in the Sudanese peace process, so it is crucial that they hear different parties.
Kabeer believes that the tour could help clarify the picture for these countries' leaders, allowing them to build on common ground, forming a basis for an agreement between the two sides.
Warmth and Welcome
Some attitudes accompanying Hemeti's tour caught the attention of observers for their implications concerning the host countries' positions towards the active parties in Sudan's conflict.
The marked warmth of reception and media images reflected the friendly atmosphere surrounding the visits.
Kabeer notes that the welcome extended to the Rapid Support Forces leader in Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Africa is "customarily official" and indicates these countries' positive reactions to the visit.
However, Dharmas suggests that the warmth is due to the tour being enabled and coordinated by allies of the Rapid Support Forces, whether "outside Africa or within."
The Onset of a Diplomatic Crisis
In an indication of a looming diplomatic crisis due to the tour, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry summoned its ambassador in Kenya "for consultation as a protest against the official reception organized by the Kenyan government for the leader of the rebel militia, and the consultation will cover all possibilities for the outcome of the bilateral relationship," according to the Sudanese News Agency.
In his speech commemorating Sudan's 68th Independence Anniversary, Al-Burhan called on the countries hosting Hemeti to refrain from "interfering in our affairs, as any facilitation provided to the leadership of the rebel group is considered a complicity in crime and partnership in killing the people of Sudan and destroying it."
Observers attribute these receptions to the host countries' desire to maintain a balance in their relationship between the conflict's parties to facilitate the mediation role they undertake. It's also noted that the recent triumphs of the Rapid Support Forces in the past months have imposed Hemeti as a principal player in the Sudanese political map.
