Despite many speculations about the fairness of the upcoming Pakistani elections, as well as the sluggishness of electoral activities and security challenges, the caretaker government led by Anwar ul Haq Kakar is determined to proceed with the electoral process on schedule.
In these elections, 22 religious parties are participating, each with varying prospects for representation in the National Parliament, regional councils, and involvement in the central government. Of note, due to the forced marginalization of the role of the Justice Movement and the imprisonment of its leader, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the main competition is now between the Islamic League led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the People’s Party led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, son of the late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and former President Asif Ali Zardari.
In addition to these two parties, other regional-based parties are participating in the elections, such as the National Migrants Movement in Sindh and the National People’s Party with Pashtun nationalism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
As for the religious political parties participating in the electoral contest, the most prominent ones include: the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party led by Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman, the Islamic Group led by Siraj-ul-Haq, the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan led by Khadim Hussain Rizvi, and the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen Shiite Party led by Nasser Abbas Jafri.
A rally for the People’s Party in Karachi (French)
Political Milestones from Inception to Present Day
Since the establishment of Pakistan in 1947, religiously inclined political parties have not achieved electoral results that would enable them to form a government, neither at the national nor regional levels. The only exception was in the 2002 elections when six of these parties contested under the banner of the “Council for Action Alliance” and secured 45 seats in the National Assembly, enabling them to form the regional government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly the North-West Frontier Province) and Balochistan.
Observers attribute the success of religiously inclined political parties in the 2002 elections to factors such as Pakistani voters’ sympathy with these parties due to the U.S. war in Afghanistan and the downfall of the Taliban-led Islamic Emirate in 2001, with the support of the then Pakistani military ruler General Pervez Musharraf.
These factors created a popular sentiment in support of religious parties opposed to the U.S. war in Afghanistan and critical of the policies of the Pervez Musharraf government.
Since the general elections in 2013, electoral results in Pakistan have shown a decrease in the number of votes cast for religiously inclined political parties. In the 2018 elections, 12 religious parties received only 5.2 million votes out of a total of 54.2 million votes cast by voters.
On that occasion, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party secured 12 seats in the central parliament, while the “Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan” party, accused of being close to the Pakistani military establishment, obtained 2.2 million votes but could not gain representation in the National Assembly or the regional parliament in Punjab, which is its main stronghold, securing only 3 seats in the regional parliament of Sindh.
Dissipation of Votes and Changed Priorities
Observers anticipate that religiously inclined political parties will not garner a high percentage of the votes in the upcoming elections. Therefore, they are unlikely to propel many of their members into the national and regional legislatures. This is due to reasons such as the potential for the dissipation of these parties’ votes, as each of them will contest the upcoming elections independently without a political umbrella or an electoral alliance, thereby diminishing the chances of their candidates winning against candidates from other parties.
The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan is also expected to deprive religious parties in Pakistan of the leverage to mobilize the religiously inclined faction resisting U.S. dominance in the region.
These developments point to a shift in Pakistani voters’ focus towards economic and security issues, such as extricating the country from its economic crisis, combating inflation, unemployment, and growing security challenges.
Religious parties in Pakistan rallying their supporters for the February 8 elections (French)
The More and Less Fortunate:
• The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, Fazl-ur-Rehman faction, is likely to have a better chance of gaining seats in the central parliament and the provincial assemblies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, according to analyst Abdul Basit Muhammad, a member of the International Center for Political Violence Research.
In an article published on “The Diplomat” website, Abdul Basit expects the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party to secure between 8 and 10 seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial council, which has a Pashtun majority, as well as the Pashtun-dominated areas in Balochistan.
The potential for the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party to exploit the “systematic weakening of the Justice Movement in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province” enhances its chances of securing seats in the upcoming elections. This is in addition to the relationships of Sheikh Fazl-ur-Rehman with the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Pakistani Taliban.
Closer Ties with the Military
There are speculations that during his recent visit to Afghanistan, Sheikh Fazl-ur-Rehman mediated for an undeclared ceasefire between the Pakistani Taliban and the government, successfully managing to achieve it following his meeting with the Afghan Taliban leader in Kandahar.
Undoubtedly, this initiative brings Sheikh Fazl-ur-Rehman closer to the Pakistani military establishment and strengthens his party’s prospects for participation in the next government, especially if Nawaz Sharif manages to reach the prime minister’s office.
This is affirmed by Muhammad Amir Rana in an article for the prominent “Dawn” newspaper in Karachi, where he states, “If speculations about Sheikh Fazl-ur-Rehman’s success in achieving a temporary cessation of hostilities by the Pakistani Taliban are valid, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party will demand a significant share of the next government.”
• The Islamic Group, founded by the renowned political leader and thinker Abul A’la Maududi, has no strong indications pointing to significant progress in its electoral trajectory, although there is a possibility of some of its candidates reaching the national council and regional councils in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Sustaining this possibility is the Islamic Group’s acquisition of 132 seats out of a total of 367 seats in the recent municipal elections in Karachi, which has a population of over 17 million people.
• Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, operating in Punjab and cities like Karachi and Hyderabad in Sindh, is likely to play a role in dividing the votes if it fails to secure seats in the parliament. This division decreases the chances of victory for candidates of the Islamic League’s Nawaz Sharif wing in Punjab and the National Migrants Movement in Karachi and Hyderabad in Sindh, due to the presence of supporters of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan among the Barelvi sect with Sufi inclinations.
Regardless of the results that the elections will yield, the voters’ inclinations will serve as a landmark for the political performance of religiously inclined political parties in Pakistan and a test of their popularity.
