The “Al-Aqsa Storm” attack in itself does not represent a factor leading to the outbreak of a third world war, but it occurred within a historical context teeming with transformations, crises, intersections, and major international collapses. Under certain pressures and specific factors, the repercussions of this attack may evolve into a pretext used by motivated powers to push the world towards a third world war. This would enable them to achieve their goals in a pivotal historical phase that paves the way for the reconstruction of the world order.
The aftermath of the genocidal war being waged by the Zionist-American alliance in the Gaza Strip following the “Al-Aqsa Storm” has generated significant indicators. The First World War produced a multipolar world system, followed by the Second World War which led to a bipolar world, swiftly collapsing into a unipolar world led by the United States. However, numerous powers have recently started to challenge this status quo, advocating for a multipolar world order that upholds justice, peace, and stability globally.
Before delving into these reasons, it is important to clarify certain points:
- This article does not offer predictions but rather aims to draw parallels between the true causes behind the two global wars – the First and Second World Wars. It emphasizes that these causes are substantially present in our current era, warning of the looming spectre of a third world war.
- The First World War was not triggered by the assassination of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire in Sarajevo, June 1914, nor was the Second World War ignited by the Japan invasion of the Chinese territory of Manchuria in September 1931. The actual causes for both wars delved much deeper, with these events merely serving as convenient triggers for major powers to perceive as justifications for embarking on much-needed global conflicts.
- It is anticipated that the Middle East will serve as the arena for the upcoming global war, in an attempt to shield Western countries, their cities, infrastructure, and industrial/technological acquisitions from the ravages witnessed during the First and Second World Wars. Arab countries, alongside Turkey and Iran, are expected to be targeted in this war due to their geopolitically strategic locations, along with their natural oil and mineral resources.
- The Zionist entity will play a significant role in this war, driven by its aspirations for geopolitical dominance in the region.
The First World War laid the foundations for a new global order, redrawing European geographical boundaries based on nationalistic principles. The League of Nations was established, marking the first institutional face of this new system in human history.
Why Do World Wars Erupt?
The primary reasons that propelled major powers at the beginning of the last century to engage in the First World War can be summarized as follows:
- The decline of the Ottoman Empire and the European empires’ aspirations to eliminate it, annex its territories, and revive the glories of the Roman Empire in Constantinople.
- Ongoing conflicts among European countries during the late 19th and early 20th centuries fueled by expansionist aspirations, hegemonic desires, and power struggles.
- The extensive competition of European colonialism across all continents, with economic and expansionist dimensions exemplified by Britain as the empire where the sun never sets.
- Shifting and unstable alliances crafted by European empires to strengthen their positions against rivals, such as the Triple Entente (Russian Empire, German Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire), the dual alliance between Germany and Austria-Hungary, the tripartite alliance including Italy, and the Anglo-Japanese alliance.
- The arms race triggered by the industrial and scientific revolution, leading to the development of advanced weaponry, equipment, and military tactics.
The First World War spanned four years (1914-1918), culminating in the victory of the Allied Powers: Britain, France, Russia (the Triple Entente), later joined by the United States, Japan, and Italy. The Central Powers (Germany, Turkey, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria) suffered defeat, resulting in nearly ten million military and seven million civilian casualties, alongside the Spanish flu pandemic claiming over 70 million lives.
The war laid down the initial elements for a new global order led by Britain, France, Russia, and the United States, refining European boundaries on nationalist bases, establishing the League of Nations as a foundational framework for a new institutional system ensuring peace, stability, arms control, and conflict resolution among member states.
Germany bore the responsibility for the losses incurred during the war, facing reparations amounting to 269 billion gold francs, later reduced to 112 billion francs in 1929, eventually paid off in 2010.
The League of Nations failed its first litmus test, unable to fulfill its duties of ensuring peace, stability, arms limitation, and resolving conflicts according to the treaties and laws enacted by member states, revealing the necessity for urgent restructuring shortly after.
Within two decades, the Second World War loomed, lasting from 1939 to 1945, between the Allied Powers primarily composed of Britain, France, the United States, the Soviet Union, China, and the Axis Powers consisting mainly of Germany, Italy, and Japan.
The causes underpinning the outbreak of the Second World War echoed earlier roots that sparked the First World War. The League of Nations proved ineffective, becoming a tool manipulated by the Allies. Major powers realigned their alliances, regions, and international expansions, particularly major German territorial expansions in Europe under Hitler’s leadership, advocating Aryan superiority and nullifying the Treaty of Versailles. This era saw a fevered focus on bolstering military capabilities and industrial armaments.
The war concluded with the victory of the Allied Powers over the Axis Powers, resulting in approximately 60 million military and civilian casualties, a testament to the havoc and aftermath of the conflict. Politically, the war ushered in the reconstruction of a new world order, leading to the establishment of the United Nations and its various organizations. This period witnessed a transition from multi-polar to bi-polar alignment, with the capitalist pole led by the United States and the socialist pole by the Soviet Union.
Subsequent years saw continued expansionist maneuvers across military, economic, and scientific domains to augment dominance and influence globally. New regional and international alliances emerged, expanding the horizons of conventional and nuclear arms races to terrifying heights.
As the Soviet Union dissolved, the world shifted from a bipolar to unipolar state, with the United States ascendant. Nevertheless, this dominance faced challenges as the arms race persisted, and Russia reclaimed its strength and status. Several powers today contest America’s unilateral leadership, advocating for a restructured global order fostering justice, peace, and stability worldwide without one state’s hegemony.
Since the early 21st century, parallels to the causes precipitating the First and Second World Wars have resurfaced, intensifying with each passing year, inching closer to the abyss of a third world war. Such a conflict will not erupt overnight but is closer than ever. The United States seeks to solidify its global position, quashing aspirations of countries craving ascent while the current world order no longer benefits from mere restoration, necessitating dismantling and reconstructing into a new framework aligning with the transformative shift observed since 2015 under the guise of Sustainable Development Goals. This reconstruction would afford the United States unchallenged dominance, empowering it to confront present adversities and build a post-modern future where humans metamorphose into digitally controlled entities entirely under its command.
The viewpoints expressed in this article represent the author’s opinions and do not necessarily mirror the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
