The military and humanitarian developments in Gaza have been accelerating for the past 130 days since the Israeli aggression on the sector began, reaching a critical stage with the Israeli occupation army threatening to invade Rafah in the south of the Gaza Strip.
Yesterday, Monday, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades (the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas) announced the killing of 10 Israeli soldiers from point-blank range, while the Al-Quds Brigades (the military wing of the Islamic Jihad Movement) set up an ambush for an Israeli force, resulting in casualties.
On the other hand, the Israeli army confirmed the injury of 9 soldiers in battles in the sector during the past 24 hours. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his determination to exert military pressure to achieve victory and release the detainees held by Hamas.
Al Jazeera Net surveyed the opinions of several analysts and experts to clarify the military and political objectives that the Israeli army seeks to achieve through its invasion of Rafah and to assess its realistic success in achieving these goals.
Reasons for the Invasion of Rafah
Military and strategic expert Colonel Elias Hanna stated, “Rafah has a unique reality due to its geographical location, human composition, and the Israeli mindset.” He added that Netanyahu linked the invasion of Rafah to the overall success of the military operation, indicating that if permitted, he may succeed in achieving his primary objective; otherwise, he will blame those who prevented him from reaching Rafah.
Meanwhile, military and strategic expert Hatem Alfalahi of the Rafidain Center for Strategic Studies (Rasam) mentioned several reasons why Netanyahu’s government is attempting to enter Rafah:
- Completing control of the Rafah crossing and the Salah al-Din corridor, significant areas whose control would completely suffocate Hamas.
- Israel seeking to completely close the door to what it calls “supplying Hamas with weapons currently used in resistance,” directly accusing Egypt of facilitating arms smuggling to the movement.
- Completing the displacement of Gaza Strip residents abroad, a fundamental reason for the military campaign launched by the Israeli army in the sector since October 7 last year.
- Only Rafah remains to achieve the two objectives announced by Netanyahu’s government: releasing the detainees held by Hamas and eliminating the movement’s leaders.
Writer and political analyst Majed Ibrahim believes that the reasons for the Israeli army’s incursion into Rafah revolve around the “Zionist aggression wanting to complete what it started in the north and center of the sector and now wants to finish it in the south in Rafah,” which he claims has four brigades of Hamas that he aims to eliminate.
Ibrahim also explained that Netanyahu aims to achieve a military accomplishment to confront his political opponents and meet the growing demands of the families of detainees, asserting to them that military strength paves the way for releasing prisoners and not otherwise, especially in light of the public’s desire for revenge since the events of the Al-Aqsa intifada.
Despite this, Colonel Hanna outlined a set of obstacles that limit the Israeli army’s ability to invade Rafah, including the density of the civilian population of about 1.5 million people in the area. Netanyahu ordered the Israeli army to prepare a military plan to evacuate the displaced persons.
Here, Hanna raises several questions that he believes cannot be realistically accomplished:
- Who will evacuate this population density? Will it be the army itself? Hanna answers that the Israeli army considers non-loyal civilians as enemies and thus cannot evacuate this large number.
- Will the “Fatah system” that used to govern Gaza do this? Hanna believes this is not possible because its employees would also be Israeli targets.
- Is there an international entity that will handle this? Up to now, this has not been clarified, as it requires time and there are many complications around it.
- Is there an area with ready infrastructure to accommodate this population density? This is also currently unavailable.
Prisoner Exchange Deal
Alfalahi pointed out that the announcement of the campaign targeting the Rafah area directly relates to the prisoner exchange deal currently being prepared. If the objectives of this invasion are met, Netanyahu will not be forced to hold this deal, and there will be no negotiations at all initially. However, if he fails to achieve these objectives, he will be obliged to strike a deal with Hamas.
He added that the Israeli army is carrying out direct airstrikes on the Rafah area to prepare the military operations in that region, indicating that Netanyahu is not serious about reaching any deal with Hamas during this period.
“I believe that the indications of the ongoing details of the prisoners exchange deal indicate that Western countries do not want to give anything to the Hamas leadership. They do not want a complete ceasefire but merely a temporary truce,” Alfalahi stated. Therefore, they do not operate on the principle of “everything for everything” but rather aim for deals based on what happened in the past period, where approximately 30 Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons are released for each Palestinian released by Hamas.
The researcher at Rasam believes that “this deal does not serve the purpose for the resistance factions that have endured this significant destruction and enormous losses. Therefore, it becomes apparent that they are not serious about concluding a real deal with Hamas.”
However, Ibrahim sees the operations in Rafah as an attempt to improve Netanyahu’s negotiating position in light of the prisoner exchange talks reaching an agreement in Paris. Moreover, this is amidst Hamas’s response to this document and its demands regarding relief, aid, and the release of Palestinian detainees.
He also noted that Netanyahu will eventually have to compromise after failing in his mission in Rafah and “will be compelled to negotiate seriously for a ceasefire deal with increasing American pressure on him, along with internal and international pressures, especially since his continued targeting of civilians will increase global anger against him.”
Hanna, on the other hand, believes that what is happening now is exaggeration and pressure to compel the resistance to change its negotiation stance. Thus, the current bombing and targeting are considered a specific operation aimed at freeing two hostages, remaining a simple special operation within a complex and significant issue, and preparation for the release of the hostages without any major operation as discussed by Netanyahu.
US Position
Regarding the American stance on the Israeli escalation against Rafah, Ibrahim stated that Washington wants Netanyahu to “accomplish this final stage before the month of Ramadan.” Although they express objections to the Israeli army’s actions, this does not extend beyond the media, aiming for domestic consumption due to President Biden’s domestic calculations. He has given Netanyahu the green light to invade the entire sector.
Concerning the Egyptian position, Ibrahim mentioned that “it still refuses the displacement but unfortunately fails to exert real pressure on the Zionist entity not to invade Rafah and what that may represent – as some say – as a threat to Egyptian national security.”
Furthermore, Alfalahi stated, “The United States has given the green light to this military operation with assurances concerning civilians,” and undoubtedly, Netanyahu will provide these assurances to President Biden because Washington is the main supporter of the Israeli government, preventing the Security Council from issuing any ceasefire resolution throughout the past period.
Alfalahi concluded, “Therefore, they are satisfied with the military operation, and what is happening in the region is being done with very significant American and Western support, including France, Germany, Italy, and Britain.”
In contrast, Hanna believes that “on the geopolitical level, Netanyahu needs approval from the patron, the United States.” Therefore, the US stance “has somewhat changed from time to time over the past two days,” with a call between the President and Netanyahu. Hanna does not think Biden gave the green light; rather, he warned him of the danger of entering Rafah, as launching an attack would harm his relationship with America.
He also pointed out that Israel needs the Egyptian position due to the shared borders, including the movement of fighters, weapons, or even relief aid, along with the Camp David accords between Cairo and Tel Aviv, which is crucial for Israel and must be maintained.
