Azerbaijan is preparing for early presidential elections next Wednesday, amid rejection from opposition parties and forces, which consider it unrealistic to conduct a campaign and gather 40,000 signatures within just one month. They argue that this should have been done before January 7th.
These elections are the first of their kind in the country, following the reintegration of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, after a surprise war waged by Azerbaijan against Armenian forces there in September of last year.
According to Mazahir Panahov, the head of the Central Election Commission in Azerbaijan, “26 polling stations will be opened in the liberated areas, with up to 20,000 people exercising their voting rights.” These include not only those who have already returned to the region but also numerous engineers and construction workers involved in the area’s reconstruction.
Despite the current President Ilham Aliyev’s term – which spans 7 years – scheduled to end in April 2025, the elections were announced last December to take place early, by February 7th this year.
The Central Election Commission of the Republic has registered the names of 7 candidates for the highest state office:
- The current President Ilham Aliyev from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party.
- Zahid Oruj (Parliament member).
- Fuad Aliyev (Independent).
- Razi Nurullayev from the “National Front Party”.
- Fazil Mustafa from the “New Azerbaijan Party”.
- Ilshad Mousayev from the “Great Azerbaijan Party”.
- Jodrat Hasanguliyev from the “People’s Front of Azerbaijan”.
Aliyev has been President of Azerbaijan since 2003, and in April 2018, he was re-elected for the fourth consecutive time, obtaining 86.21% of the votes. His closest competitor, non-party parliament deputy Zahid Oruj, received only 3.11% of the votes.
According to the Constitution of Azerbaijan, the President of the Republic is elected for a period of 7 years through a general, equal, direct, free, and confidential vote. The President is elected by a majority of half of the votes, and if this majority is not achieved in the first round of voting, a second round is held with only two candidates.
In September 2016, a referendum took place in Azerbaijan to introduce 6 new articles to the country’s constitution and make 23 other amendments to the current articles. As a result of the referendum, the presidential term was extended from 5 to 7 years, and the President was granted the authority to dissolve the unicameral legislature (the Parliament composed of a single chamber in the country) and call for early presidential elections. A referendum was also held in the country prior to that, in 2009, where the restrictions on electing the same person as president for more than two terms were annulled.
Historical Precedent
Nayir Aliyev, an expert in Azerbaijani affairs, believes that the decision to hold early elections stems from several considerations, notably “the importance of conducting elections in all Azerbaijani territories following the retaking of the Karabakh region. This marks the first time in the country’s history after regaining independence and the unity of its adjacent territories that fell under Armenian occupation.”
He explains to Al Jazeera that “holding early elections on this basis will symbolize a historical and political event, which is widely recognized in Azerbaijan as a significant matter.” He also points to the technical aspect, noting that “if the upcoming elections were held in 2025, they would overlap with other elections and electoral campaigns, such as the parliamentary elections and local council elections scheduled for the end of 2024.”
Aliyev concludes that “the current president is an undisputed candidate, and his victory is inevitable due to the historical achievement of regaining Karabakh to Azerbaijan’s embrace, which other candidates acknowledge.”
Andrei Arishev, an expert in Caucasian affairs, believes that “Aliyev’s decision to hold early presidential elections aims to reaffirm the legitimacy of the current government,” adding that “the President currently has no serious competitors in Azerbaijan.”
The same expert further states that “Aliyev’s personal role in the victory of the Karabakh war in 2020 and subsequently securing Baku’s complete control over this region is a historical event for Azerbaijan and South Caucasus. Therefore, holding early elections constitutes a favorable background and a good moment to strengthen Aliyev’s authority, extending his presidential term for the next seven years.”
According to the same speaker, “the upcoming elections will serve as a referendum on supporting the first person and trusting him. Afterward, even the staunchest opponents in Azerbaijan will not be able to deny Aliyev’s role in consolidating the state, and it will be impossible to oppose him in this context. Naturally, Aliyev is not prepared to miss such an opportunity.”
