Khartoum – Sudanese bid farewell to a year 2023 filled with bloodshed and tears. It started with political division and polarization over a "framework agreement" to solve the political crisis, sparking a dispute between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, leading to a war in mid-April not seen in the capital Khartoum for over a century. It spread to Kordofan and Darfur, costing thousands of lives and displacing millions, now threatening to fracture the country.
Political researcher Abdel Qader Hassan describes 2023 as a sad, tragic, and nightmarish year for Sudanese, pointing out that while past decades' wars raged at the country's fringes, this is the first time in over a century they knock on the doors of the capital.
Crisis Accumulation
Sudan entered the year affected by an ongoing crisis since the October 2021 coup by Sovereignty Council President and Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan against his allies in the Forces of Freedom and Change-Central Council, dissolving the Sovereignty and Ministers councils, and imposing a state of emergency.
Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok signed a document to resolve the crisis with the military component of the Sovereignty Council, but it was rejected by the civilian forces that formed the backbone of the government, prompting Hamdok's resignation.
In early December 2022, the Forces of Freedom and Change-Central Council reached a "framework agreement" with the military, signed by Burhan and his deputy, Rapid Support Forces commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (Hemedti).
The final political agreement was scheduled for signing at the beginning of last April, with the transitional constitution to be signed on the sixth of the month, followed by the formation of a transitional civilian government to manage the country for two years before general elections.
Negotiations between the military component and civilian forces were facilitated by the tripartite mechanism composed of the United Nations, African Union, and IGAD, along with a quartet of the United States, Britain, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates.
Political Tug-of-War
The political document faced rejection from significant players in the scene, notably the Forces of Freedom and Change-Democratic Bloc, which includes the major armed movements, alongside other influential forces, causing political division in the country.
Further complicating the situation was Burhan’s and the military institution’s insistence not to sign the final agreement unless a deadline for merging the Rapid Support Forces into the army was set. A security and military reform workshop was held, during which the army demanded integration within two years, while the latter insisted on twenty years, leading military representatives to withdraw from the workshop and increasing the country's tension.
The crisis escalated with the Forces of Freedom and Change-Central Council siding with the Rapid Support Forces against the army and the Forces of Freedom and Change-Democratic Bloc. In contrast, leftist forces opposed any settlement with the military, accusing their former allies in the ruling coalition of seeking a new partnership with the military component and branding them "soft-landing forces."
The tug-of-war among Sudanese factions and the tension between the army and Rapid Support Forces led to the outbreak of war in mid-April, which the military institution considered an attempt by Hemedti to hijack power through military maneuvering supported by regional forces. They accused the UN envoy Volker Perthes of contributing to the tensions by trying to impose limited political forces with no popular support or social depth and deliver them rule while excluding other forces.
War Aftermath
Eight months into the war, not much has changed in the military map of Khartoum, but the fighting spread to parts of Kordofan. By late October, the Rapid Support Forces took control of the capitals of South, West, and Central Darfur states, leaving only the Fasher, capital of North Darfur State, out of their control.
Sudan is now classified as having the largest internal displacement in the world. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Sudan reported over 12,000 people killed since the war began.
It also stated that 6.6 million people had fled their homes, with 5.3 million internally displaced across 4,473 locations within the country's safe states, while 1.3 million crossed into Chad, Egypt, Central Africa, Ethiopia, and South Sudan.
The World Food Programme issued new warnings of an imminent famine, threatening 18 million Sudanese by the next dry season.
In addition to the deteriorating security and food situation, outbreaks of infectious diseases like cholera and dengue fever are rife, and the disruption of education threatens a whole generation. UNICEF warned that 19 million Sudanese children are out of school and that the country is on the brink of the world's worst educational crisis.
Severe Economic Losses
Economic expert Adel Abdel Aziz estimates the losses in the economy and infrastructure at over $108 billion, including $15.8 billion lost in GDP. Civil aviation damages amount to $3 billion, while roads, bridges, and government buildings account for $10 billion.
He also estimates public healthcare losses at $5 billion and the electricity and water sector at $10 billion. The private sector alone faced not less than $15 billion in losses, alongside complete destruction of the industrial sector in Khartoum and South Darfur at approximately $30 billion, and agricultural sector losses at $10 billion.
Regarding citizen's properties, approximately 10,000 homes in Khartoum were completely looted, including savings, and nearly 30,000 vehicles were stolen, with combined losses estimated at $10 billion.
The World Bank expects Sudan's economy to shrink by 12% in 2023 due to the war's effects. The Sudanese pound lost more than 90% of its value, where the exchange rate for a dollar before the war was 560 pounds, rising to 1070 pounds in the parallel market afterward.
UN Mission Crisis
The UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), led by German Volker Perthes, faced criticism from the military component and Islamic stream since starting its mission in 2021 upon Hamdok's request.
In September, Perthes resigned, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres appointed Ramtane Lamamra as his envoy to Sudan. The UN Security Council concluded the mission's mandate in early December at Sudan's request, describing its performance as disappointing.
American Pressure
In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, political researcher Abdel Qader Hassan sees the stalemate of the Jeddah negotiations platform between the army and the Rapid Support Forces as disappointing to Sudanese hopeful for peace. He attributes this to the lack of will from both sides and foreign interventions that further complicated matters.
Hassan predicts a breakthrough in ending the war in early 2023 due to American pressure. Washington aims to urge both parties to cease fighting as the American elections near, with violations, war crimes, and ethnic cleansing in Darfur becoming a domestic issue in the US and a competition topic between the White House and Congress.
He adds that the US envoy to the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer, who engineered the agreement between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray Front ending the regional war, started moves in the Sudanese file last week by participating in the IGAD leaders' summit.
